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Rhetoric or Reality

WILL REALITY OVERCOME THE RHETORIC OF AN OUT OF CONTROL BORDER?

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On June 18, I visited two migrant shelters on the border. At the Sacred Heart church in El Paso, there were 25 migrants, far below the usual number of over 100. At Respettrans in Juárez, there were 49; in past visits over the last four years, there would always be between 150 and 250. I then spoke to a representative of Colores United in Deming and Punto Beta in Palomas and was told that both were basically empty.

What is going on?

What’s happening is that Mexico is further restricting the flow of migrants across its southern border with Guatemala. In other words, Mexico whose president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has never been particularly pro Biden is bailing President Biden out. This is a victory for Biden in terms of the reality of border control. Whether it will overcome the rhetoric that says the border is totally out of control is another question, one that hinges on this collision of rhetoric with reality.

Several people have been key to this, although you rarely hear their names.

The first is US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar. I worked with him in the administration of Governor Roy Romer ( 1987-1999) and watched him rise from Colorado Attorney General ( 1999-2005) to US Senator ( 2005-2009) to Secretary of Interior ( 2009-2013.) In September 2021, he took office as US Ambassador to Mexico and I believe that one of his key tasks was to build a relationship with the often-prickly AMLO and that he has succeeded.

Another key person, also little known, is Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Affairs and the person who AMLO has named to be his leader on immigration issues. A biologist by profession she knows the US well, having earned a master’s degree in public administration at Harvard. She is bringing a new level of energy and sophistication to this complicated issue as well as an awareness that immigration is a critical issue for both countries and that we have a common interest in making improvements.

Sheinbaum’s border policies

The third key person is AMLO who will have from September I when the new members of Congress take office until October 1 when the president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum takes office to push for some twenty changes to the Constitution which, in general, are aimed at concentrating more power in the President and reducing government oversight and regulation.

Sheinbaum has expressed concern about these changes which may be an important indicator that she will not be totally subservient to him as some have predicted. What’s important from our point of view, however, is to what extent will she continue AMLO’s border policies. Biden reached out to her immediately after her June 2 electoral victory. Equally important, she knows the US well, having done much of the research for her PhD at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley, California. It’s fair to say that she and Bárcena have far more US experience than any US leaders have experience with Mexico.

Biden has been criticized from both the left and the right for his early June executive order restricting asylum requests but the realty is that he had to take action to reduce the numbers coming north to the US border. This executive order is being tested in the courts and the outcome is uncertain. Therefore, it’s even more critical that AMLO, Bárcena and Sheinbaum continue their support.

Observe reality

What’s next? We’ll return to Juárez, Palomas and Deming the first week of July and will check these migrant shelters once again. I predict that the numbers will be low as they were on June 18. That will be the reality. Will it be sufficient to overcome the rhetoric?